will tesla stock go back up​

Based on available information, the outlook for a recovery in Tesla (TSLA) shares on April 30, 2025 is subject to a combination of factors such as financial performance, industry competition, technical aspects and market sentiment. Here’s a comprehensive analysis:

 1. Current stock price performance and key data

1.  Recent price fluctuations

   • As of the close of trading on April 29, 2025, Tesla’s stock price was $292.03, but it fell to $221.86 on April 8, down 54.6% from the 52-week high ($488.54) and up 59.8% from the 52-week low ($138.80).
   • The current stock price is below the 50-day ($293.17) and 200-day moving averages ($295.46), and the technical picture is weak.
   • The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 143.19, and the market capitalization is about $917.8 billion, indicating that the market still has certain expectations for its high growth.

2.  Deliveries vs. market reaction

   • Deliveries in the first quarter of 2025 were 337,000 units, down 13% year-on-year, below market expectations of 390,000 units, causing the stock price to plunge 8% after hours.
   • The Chinese market performed well: 78,800 units were delivered at the Shanghai plant in March, with weekly sales reaching 21,000 units, but weak global deliveries raised demand concerns.

 2. Financial performance and profitability

1.  Revenue and profit declined

   • Q1 revenue in 2025 will be US$19.3 billion, down 9% year-on-year; Net profit was US$409 million, down 71% year-on-year, the lowest in nearly three years.
   • Automobile sales revenue decreased by 20%, energy storage business revenue increased by 67%, and service revenue increased by 15%, indicating that the business structure is in transition.
   • The gross profit margin was 16.3%, exceeding market expectations (15.82%), and the free cash flow was US$664 million, and the short-term liquidity pressure was controllable.

2.  Cost vs. tariff shocks

   • The Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars, impacting supply chain costs.
   • The price reduction strategy led to a decrease in the average selling price (ASP), further compressing profit margins.

 3. Industry competition and technological innovation

1.  Electric Vehicle Market Trends

   • Solid-state batteries, autonomous driving technologies such as FSD, and charging infrastructure are at the heart of the industry’s competition.
   • Tesla faces stiff competition from Chinese brands such as BYD and Xiaomi, and its FSD technology is considered to lag behind local players.

2.  Tesla’s technical layout

   • The company plans to launch a fully autonomous driving service from June to August 2025 and commercialize Robotaxi by mid-2026.
   • The installed capacity of energy storage business increased by 157% year-on-year, and the energy sector may become a new growth point.

 4. Management and political factors

1.  Musk’s role and reputational risk

   • Musk previously served in the Trump administration, triggering a “reputational shock” for the brand.
   • With the recent resignation from public service and return to front-line management, the market’s expectations for a strategic focus have increased.

2.  Supply chains and geopolitics

   • Tariffs and trade frictions with China have led to rising supply chain costs, and high dependence on the Chinese market has exacerbated risks.

 5. Analyst forecasts and market sentiment

1.  Divergent forecast targets

   • Short-term (12-month) price targets are broad: Mizuho Securities is bullish as $515, Wells Fargo warns of another 50% decline.
   • Long-term (2025-2030) forecasts diverge even more, ranging from as low as $7.51 (WalletInvestor, 2028) to as high as $1,106 (CoinCodex, 2030).

2.  Market sentiment indicators

   •  The current analyst rating is dominated by “hold”, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude.
   • Fear indices (e.g. Fear & Greed Index) show that the market is biased towards caution.

 6. Potential drivers of recovery

1.  Positive catalysts

   • FSD technology breakthrough: If fully autonomous driving is implemented as scheduled, it may reshape the profit model.
   • Low-cost model launch: The rumored “Model 2” may boost sales.
   •  Energy growth: High energy storage capacity growth may support valuations.

2.  Risks and challenges

   • Continued weakness in deliveries: If deliveries do not improve in Q2, the stock price could come under further pressure.
   • Political and supply chain risks: Tariff policy and U.S.-China relations remain key variables.
   • Intensified competition: The EV layout of traditional automakers and emerging brands is eating into market share.

 Conclusion: Short-term pressure, long-term depends on strategy execution

• Short-term (next 3-6 months): The stock price may remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the Q2 delivery data and FSD progress. If the gross margin continues to improve, it may support the stock price to rebound to the $300-350 range.
• Long-term (more than 1 year): Tesla’s stock price is expected to recover above $400 if it can deliver on its promise of autonomous driving and low-cost models, while expanding its energy business advantage; Conversely, competitive and earnings pressures could lead to further downsides.

Investors need to weigh the potential of technological innovation against short-term performance pressures, and pay close attention to management’s strategic adjustments and market policy changes.