should i buy tsla stock

Whether to buy Tesla (TSLA) stock requires a multi-dimensional analysis based on its current financial situation, market prospects, industry competition and potential risks. The following is a comprehensive assessment based on the latest information:

 1. Current stock price and market performance

1.  Stock price volatility

   • As of April 28, 2025, Tesla’s stock price is $239.43, with a market capitalization of about $750 billion. Over the past 12 months, the stock price has fluctuated between $220-$280, with a 52-week high of $299.29 and a low of $181.25.
   • Technical indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in neutral range at 46.3, the current stock price is below the 200-day moving average ($252.31), the short-term trend is weak, but the recent weekly gain of more than 18% indicates that the market sentiment may turn.

2.  Near-term catalysts

   • The easing of the driverless policy in the United States has driven stock prices up in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the actual profit contribution after the policy is implemented.

 2. Financial health and business performance

1.  Core Financial Data (Q1 2025)

   • Revenue: $19.335 billion, down 9% year-on-year, far below market expectations of $21.348 billion.
   • Net profit: US$409 million, down 71% year-on-year; The gross profit margin fell to 16.3%, and the gross profit margin of the automotive business (after subsidy) was only 12.5%, a new low in a decade[[9]-[11]].
   • Deliveries: 336,700 units, down 13% year-on-year, the worst quarterly performance since 2022.
   • Cash flow: Free cash flow was $660 million, up 126% year-over-year, indicating that short-term liquidity risks were manageable.

2.  Changes in business structure

   • Automotive business under pressure: Revenue was reduced due to declining sales and price reduction strategies, and production capacity was impacted by the Model Y facelift upgrade.
   • Energy growth: Energy storage and charging pile revenue increased by 67% year-on-year to US$2.73 billion, which was the main support.
   • AI spike: $1.41 billion in R&D spending, mainly for autonomous driving (FSD) and robotics projects, is a short-term drag on profits but could open up room for growth in the long term.

 3. Industry trends and competitive environment

1.  Electric vehicle market outlook

   • Growth potential: China expects the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to exceed 50% by 2025, and the compound growth rate (CAGR) of the global market will remain high.
   • Intensified competition: Traditional automakers (e.g., Volkswagen, Toyota) are accelerating electrification, emerging brands (e.g., BYD, Rivian) are grabbing market share, and Tesla needs to rely on technological innovation to maintain its advantage.

2.  Policy risks and supply chain challenges

   • Trade policy: The impact of U.S. tariff adjustments on supply chain costs, such as import tariffs on components, could further squeeze margins.
   • Geopolitics: Musk’s political stance has triggered some market boycotts, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of brand image restoration.

 Fourth, the difference between the institutional rating and the target price

1.  Look at the long view

   • Technology-driven growth: Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler and others believe FSD and Optimus Robotics will reshape valuations, with price targets of up to $500.
   • Budget model plan: Mass production of new models is expected in the second half of 2025, which is expected to boost sales.

2.  Bearish view

   • Performance pressure: Goldman Sachs, UBS and others lowered their price targets to $225-275, believing that short-term profit declines and valuation bubbles coexist.
   • Execution risk: The commercialization cycle of AI projects is long, and the mass production of Robotaxi is delayed to 2026, resulting in high uncertainty.

 5. Potential risks and investment decision-making suggestions

1.  Key risk factors

   • Supply Chain & Costs: Tariffs and volatile battery raw material prices may further squeeze margins.
   • Difficulty in technology implementation: Autonomous driving technology needs to break through regulations, user trust, and technical bottlenecks, and it is difficult to contribute profits in the short term.
   • Market competition: If cheap models cannot be scaled up quickly, market share may continue to be lost.

2.  Investment advice

   • Long-term investors: If you believe that Tesla can successfully transform its AI and energy businesses, the current stock price correction may be an opportunity for layout, but it will need to withstand short-term fluctuations.
   • Short-term investors: pay attention to Q2 deliveries, the progress of low-cost models and the speed of FSD implementation, and be wary of the risk of possible correction after the earnings report.
   • Risk-averse: It is recommended to wait and see until the gross profit margin recovers or the AI business has a clear profit path before entering the market.

 VI. Conclusions

Tesla is in a transition period between the decline of its traditional automotive business and its investment in emerging technologies. Short-term financial pressures are significant (declining margins, weak deliveries), but the long-term growth narrative remains attractive (autonomous driving, energy storage). Investors need to weigh the trade-offs based on their risk appetite:

• Aggressive strategy: The current price has a certain margin of safety, positions can be opened in batches, and the stop loss is set below the 200-day moving average ($252).
• Conservative strategy: Wait for Q2 earnings reports to verify the improvement of production capacity and gross margin of cheap models, or hedge volatility risk through options.

The final decision should be based on personal investment goals, risk tolerance, and confidence in Tesla’s technology roadmap.