Is the Lilly stock, which has skyrocketed in the past five years, still worth investing in in the future

 As one of the most eye-catching pharmaceutical giants in the past five years，
Eli Lilly ($Eli Lilly (LLY)$) shares are up much larger than the market，
The company’s core products, Tirzepatide-powered diabetes and weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, have set off a market boom。 however， Facing the competition and challenges in the next five years，
Can Eli Lilly continue its success? We analyze its potential and risks from multiple dimensions。

 Core business: GLP-1 drugs remain the growth engine

  Eli Lilly’s core growth drivers remain focused on GLP-1 drugs。 In 2024，
Sales of tirpatide, the active ingredient of Mounjaro and Zepbound, are close to $16.5 billion， 36% of the company’s total revenue。
Although Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide dominates the market with $29.3 billion in sales，
But Eli Lilly continues to catch up by expanding indications, such as treating obstructive sleep apnea, and increasing capacity。 Analysts expect，
Zepbound’s sales are expected to double to $10.39 billion by 2025， Mounjaro could rise to $18.17 billion。

 however， Short-term weaker sales growth has raised concerns。 Q4 2024，
Mounjaro and Zepbound had sales of $3.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively， Below market expectations， caused the stock price to plummet by 5% at one point。 Excess inventory and intensified market competition have become concerns，
But the company expects revenue to reach $58 billion to $61 billion in 2025， Year-on-year growth of 32%， Show long-term confidence。

 R&D pipeline: multi-field layout to consolidate advantages

  Eli Lilly’s innovation pipeline is seen as key to future growth:

Orforglipron, an oral weight loss drug: Late-stage clinical data is expected to be announced in mid-2025， If successful, it will break the current market pattern dominated by injections， Improve patient convenience。 According to some estimates，
Orforglipron’s sales are likely to reach $8.3 billion by 2030。

Triple agonist Retatrutide: simultaneously targets GLP-1、 GIP and GCG receptors， May surpass the efficacy of tirpatide， It is currently in phase III clinical trials， Potential peak sales could reach $5 billion。

 Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla: filling the treatment gap， Sales are expected to reach USD 2.5 billion in 2030。

 Other areas: ulcerative colitis drug Omvoh、 Diversified layout of anti-cancer drug Jaypirca and gene therapy， Further diversify risk and broaden the market。

 Morgan Stanley analysts once listed Eli Lilly as the “industry’s top pick”， Considered to have the “strongest new product cycle” in the pharmaceutical industry。

 Competition and Risk: Market Saturation and Policy Pressures

 This is despite the high demand for GLP-1 drugs， But Eli Lilly faced multiple challenges:

 Capacity & Supply Chain: Novo Nordisk plans to be the first to launch oral weight loss drugs，  Eli Lilly needed to ramp up production to keep up with the competition。

 Pricing and health care: Policies are becoming stricter in various countries， The Chinese market has expanded its coverage through health care reform， But pricing pressures could squeeze margins。

Valuation controversy: Eli Lilly stock currently trades at a dynamic price-to-earnings (Forward P/E) of 39， Far exceeding the industry average of 17.7。 If the performance growth slows down， The stock price may correct。

 The next five years: Can the high growth continue?

 Comprehensive analysis，  Eli Lilly’s long-term prospects remain bullish:

Revenue growth: The midpoint of expected revenue in 2025 ($59.5 billion) corresponds to a 32% growth rate， The annual growth rate is likely to remain above 15% in the next five years。

 Technical barriers: Continued innovation in the field of GLP-1 (e.g., oral dosage forms、 multi-target drugs) will consolidate its leading position。

Market expansion: Emerging markets (e.g., China) and indication expansion (e.g., sleep apnea) provide new increments。

 however， Investors need to be wary of short-term volatility。
Eli Lilly’s stock price fell 15% in early 2025 due to weaker-than-expected results， However, long-term holders may be able to borrow a pullback layout。

 Conclusion: The double test of innovation and execution

  Eli Lilly’s future depends on its ability to translate pipeline potential into market success， and responding to competition and policy pressures。 If the core drug continues to be increased， The new drug was launched as scheduled， Eli Lilly is expected to continue to lead the pharmaceutical industry in the next five years。 But be cautious about high valuations， Dip hunting may be a better strategy。 As Bernstein analysts put it: “The risk has been released， But the growth story remains to be verified”