why are egg prices so high

The sharp rise in egg prices is the result of the joint action of multiple factors, involving multiple dimensions such as supply chain, production costs, animal epidemics, policy adjustments and the macroeconomic environment. The following is an in-depth analysis from six core levels:

 1. The devastating impact of the avian influenza epidemic on the supply side

Since 2022, the global avian influenza epidemic has shown a high incidence, causing a devastating blow to the laying hen stock. As a severely affected area, the United States has culled more than 163 million laying hens in total, which directly led to a sharp drop in the supply of eggs. Since laying hens take 19-20 weeks from hatching to egg laying, it is difficult to restore production capacity in the short term. In March 2023, the wholesale price of eggs in the United States soared by 255% year-on-year, and the retail prices in some cities even exceeded US$10 per dozen. Japan, the EU and other places were also hit. Japan killed more than 17 million birds in a single season, and the wholesale price of Tokyo eggs hit a 30-year high. This global supply crisis has made international egg trade (only 3% of global output) unable to effectively regulate the market.

 2. Structural rise in breeding costs

1. Dominant pressure on feed costs: Corn and soybean meal account for 56%-63.5% of the feed costs of laying hens, and feed costs rose by 18% year-on-year in 2022. Taking the United States as an example, the price of soybean meal rose from 2,900 yuan/ton at the end of 2024 to 3,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 24%, pushing the cost of single kilogram of egg feed to 2.9 yuan.
2. Labor and energy costs climb: The shortage of truck drivers in the United States has increased the cost of refrigerated transportation, and the wages of Chinese breeders have increased from 3,000-4,000 yuan to 4,000-5,000 yuan. In addition, the increase in fuel consumption in winter has further pushed up terminal prices.
3. The cost of epidemic prevention has surged: Avian influenza prevention and control has led to an increase in spending on disinfection and vaccines. The US Department of Agriculture has invested $1 billion in special funds for this, which indirectly translated into production costs.

 3. Supply chain vulnerability aggravates price fluctuations

1. Logistics bottleneck: The insufficient transportation capacity of refrigerated trucks in the United States has led to an imbalance in regional supply and demand, and the rain and snow weather in China has increased transportation costs by 0.05-0.1 yuan per catty.
2. Storage restrictions: Eggs have short shelf life, and sell or hoarding are prone to occur when supply chains are interrupted. The surge in demand before Easter in the United States has formed a superposition effect and insufficient inventory.
3. Processing link transmission: The catering industry adjusted its menu due to cost pressure, and the American waffle house charged $0.5 per egg, reflecting the transfer of supply chain pressure to the consumer side.

 4. Complex impact of the alternative market

1. Protein substitution effect: When pork prices fell (China’s pork prices fell 18% year-on-year in March), consumers’ turn to meat led to a decline in demand for eggs; but the United States’ demand for eggs as a source of cheap protein increased due to the simultaneous price increase in meat prices in the United States.
2. Plant-based product impact: Plural eggs such as JUST Egg have increased by 30% in the US crisis, which may divert the traditional egg market in the long run, but in the short term, the supply and demand contradictions have not been alleviated due to insufficient price advantages.

 V. Policy regulation and international trade game

1. Export restrictions policy: Russia implements a 6-month ban on poultry and egg exports, Türkiye imposes a tax of $0.5 per kilogram on exported eggs, and Kazakhstan prohibits importing eggs from roads. These policies have exacerbated global supply tensions.
2. Differences in production subsidies: China stabilizes its production capacity through policies such as subsidies for the ancestor chickens and standardized farm transformation, while the United States relies on market regulation and its capacity recovery lags behind.
3. Animal welfare legislation: The EU promotes cage-free chicken farming regulations, resulting in a decrease in the supply of traditional cage-raising eggs. EU egg imports increased by 300% in 2022, pushing up international market prices.

 6. The superposition effect of macroeconomics and market expectations

1. Inflation transmission mechanism: The increase in US egg prices (60.4%) far exceeds the overall CPI, reflecting the ratcheting effect of food inflation. The Fed’s interest rate hike failed to curb the rigidity of prices in the food sector.
2. Speculation has amplified fluctuations: egg hoarding and black market trading have occurred in the United States, and consumer psychological expectations have further distorted the market.
3. Long-term cost support: The US Department of Agriculture predicts that egg prices will rise by another 20.3% year-on-year in 2025, and the upward trend of feed costs and the high energy prices have created long-term pressure.

 Future trends and potential risks

1. Capacity recovery cycle: The United States needs to rebuild its flock at least 9-12 months, and the price turning point may be available at the end of 2025.
2. Technology alternative path: Cell culture egg technology (such as Upside Foods) may change the industrial landscape in the next 5-10 years.
3. Climate risks escalate: Frequent extreme weather (such as the heavy winds in China in April 2025 caused transportation disruption) will continue to test the resilience of the supply chain.

In summary, the high egg price is the result of the combined effect of natural risks (abian flu), economic laws (cost-driven), policy intervention (trade restrictions) and market psychology (speculative expectations), and its complexity is far beyond the scope of single factor explanation. Consumers need to adapt to the paradigm shift from “cheap necessities” to “high volatility goods”, while policy makers need to seek a dynamic balance between biosecurity, supply chain flexibility and market regulation.